Biggest Issues

There are several major issues on the minds of the electorate this year. The number one topic by far according to polling data has been the economy and inflation. It is followed by immigration, government programs like social security and medicare, threats to democracy and abortion.

The Economy & Inflation

Like most elections, the economy is by far the number one issue on the minds of voters. Inflation has been a major issue in the United States and in most of the developed world.

Despite polling data indicating a dissatisfaction with the state of the economy, Biden had a slightly higher GDP annual growth rate of 2.9% compared to just about 2.7% for Trump.

The unemployment rate was also similar with Trump reaching a low of 3.5% and Biden hitting a record of 3.4%. Inflation, however, has risen a lot more under Biden reaching 19% compared to only 5% during Trump's presidency (Power, 2024).

The overall view of the state of the economy, as demonstrated by the data below, is more negative. With a majority of Americans having an unfavourable opinion of the current economy.

Immigration

Immigration has been an important issue on the minds of voters. It is estimated that there are over 11 million illegal immigrants in the United States as of 2024. Between 2021 and 2023, border patrol encountered between 1.5--2 million yearly illegal crossings at the US-Mexico border (Van Hook et al., 2024).

This topic has been a controversial and divisive issue with Democrats favouring looser and more humanitarian policies and Republicans advocating for more strict and restrictive enactment and enforcement of immigration laws.

The following polling data shows that the issue of illegal immigration and how to handle it is still divisive. Nonetheless there has been an increase in people favouring more strict policies since 2016.

Abortion

Abortion, another divisive issue, has seen a rise in electoral importance in recent years. This due to the overturning of Roe v. Wade which took away the constitutional right to an abortion.

That decision was made in 2022 in the case Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization in a 6-3 decision with 3 of the justices that voted for overturning abortion rights having been appointed by Donald Trump.

This has led to several states enacting legislation prohibiting access to abortion. This despite the fact that the majority of the population is in favour of legal access to abortion.

Social Programs

Americans are divided on partisan lines with respect to their views on public benefits like medicare and social security. As a whole however, a majority of Americans are favourable to such programs.

In fact, 69% of Americans have said that a candidate's position on social security will be a major influence as to how they vote (Konish, 2024).

Democracy

There has been an increased concern over the state of democracy in the United States especially after the January 6th, 2021 attack on the capital and recent statements made by Donald Trump challenging and questioning the integrity of the US elections and signalling possible anti-democratic actions.

Where the Two Major Presidential Candidates Stand on the Issues

Economy & Inflation

Harris: Harris has promised to continue the work done by Biden and her administration by investing in infrastructure, manufacturing jobs, and clean energy. During their term they have also enacted tax cuts for working families and increased them on wealthy individuals, including a 15% corporate minimum tax.

Trump: Trump has promised to lower taxes and regulations for all Americans. He has also promised to drill more oil and dig more coal, including reinitiating the Keystone Pipeline that was stopped by Biden. He claims that these policies will help reduce inflation and create more jobs.

Immigration

Harris: Harris and Biden have had a more compassionate approach to immigration. They have lifted refugee admissions caps, expanded humanitarian parole, and worked in partnership with the major Central American countries where immigration stems from to reduce the amount of people crossing illegally (American Progress, 2024).

Trump: Trump has promised to reinstate policies from his first term including continuing the construction of a border wall. He has also promised to conduct the largest deportation effort in history (Cabral, S., 2024).

Abortion

Harris: Harris has a pro-choice policy on abortion and plans to pass federal legislation guaranteeing the right to access abortions. Democrats would have to take back a majority in Congress to have a chance at passing such legislation.

Trump: Trump has promised not to pass any legislation on abortion saying he wants to leave it up to the states. He has however nominated supreme court justices that have aided in the overturning of Roe v. Wade and will likely continue to nominate pro-life judges in all levels of the justice system.

Social Security & Medicare

Harris: Harris has a long track history in the senate of supporting programs like social security and medicare. She has proposed strengthening these programs and ensuring their solvency (Konish, 2024).

Trump: Trump has mostly promised not to touch social security and medicare, although he has stated he would possibly be open future cuts. His party has long had policies that seek to weaken social programs and cut their funding.

Democracy

Harris: Harris has promised to respect the outcome of the elections. Biden and Harris's administration have overseen the prosecution of hundreds of people who participated in the January 6th invasion of the capitol.

Trump: Trump has once again refused to say if he will respect the outcome of the election and has questioned the reliability and efficiency of the passed and upcoming election. He has also said he would pardon several people convicted for January 6th.

How Each Candidate's Policies Stack up to Opinion Polling Data

Economy & Inflation: Both candidates have strong track records with regards to the economy. However, inflation numbers will likely favour Trump in this area. Moreover, general opinions on the state of the economy also point to a favourability in Trump's direction.

Abortion: Polling data suggest that a majority of Americans are in favour of legal abortions. This will most likely be an advantage to the Harris campaign and might even fuel voter turnout.

Immigration: Immigration is still a divided issue, but there has been an increase in favourability of tougher laws for those who come in the country illegally. This might also favour Trump.

Social Security & Medicare: Polling data suggests a strong support for programs like social security and medicare. This will likely be an advantage to Harris given her strong support for government assistance and the Republican's negative track record on the issue.

Democracy: Given the stark difference in both candidate's statements regarding their commitments to the democratic process, this issue will likely be beneficial to the Harris campaign.